Retail sales rose 0.1 percent following a 1.7 percent surge in March.
The Advance Retail Sales report for April shows the expected flattening of consumer spending following the upwardly revised March surge of 1.7 percent from the initial reported 1.4 percent.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.1 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 5.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from April 2024.
Total sales for the February 2025 through April 2025 period were up 4.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2025 to March 2025 percent change was revised from up 1.5 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 1.7 percent (±0.2 percent).
The key phrase is in italics. These are nominal sales. It’s real (inflation-adjusted) sales that feed GDP.
Month-Over-Month Details
- Total: 0.1
- Excluding Motor Vehicles 0.1
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.2
- Motor Vehicles: 0.1
- Food Service: 1.2
- Gas Stations: -0.5
- Nonstore: 0.2
- Food Stores: 0.0
- General Merchandise -0.2
The gyrations in motor vehicles are so wide they distort the chart.
What stands out is unusual quietness. Most categories were between -0.2 percent and +0.2 percent.
In March, consumers acted to get in front of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2.
Advance Retail Sales Millions of Dollars Seasonally Adjusted
Advance Retail Sales Select Categories
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Detail
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Highlights
- Since January 2020, nominal sales are up 40.52 percent
- Since January 2020, real sales are up 13.72 percent
- Real sales peaked in March of 2021 along with covid stimulus that set inflation on fire.
- Real sales are down 3.16 percent since the covid free money handout.
The vaunted US consumer is largely a mirage of inflation.
Meanwhile, Congressional spending is out of hand and long-term yields have been rising.
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