Tens of thousands of people have been warned they could be cut off and at least three people have died amid “incredible” rainfall across parts of NSW.
But the deluge has not been caused by a particularly extraordinary weather system, according to a Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) meteorologist.
Angus Hines, a senior forecaster, told ABC News on Thursday morning that some locations in the mid-north coast and Hunter regions had recorded 500-600mm of rain in the week so far — what he labelled an “incredible amount”.
Hines said what has caused it isn’t uncommon, although there have been two key factors that have given it a boost.
“It’s quite remarkable. If you look at it on a weather map, the system that is causing all this rainfall doesn’t look threatening,” Hines said.
“It’s what we call a coastal trough, which is quite common on the east coast of the country but it’s had a couple of things working for it which have really ramped up the rainfall numbers over the past few days,” Hines said.
First, he said, the air being pulled into the east coast is extremely humid, carrying a lot of moisture that can produce rain if atmospheric conditions are right.
And secondly, the system hasn’t moved — it’s been stationary since around Monday, leading to continuous rainfall throughout the week.
“If it had only been one day and then it had gone, we would have seen some minor or moderate flooding, but it wouldn’t have been too bad,” Hines said.
“But four days in a row of this amount of rainfall and we see this significant, extensive, widespread and major flood event happening in front of our eyes.”
Prolonged heavy rainfall is set to continue throughout Thursday, with Kempsey and Coffs Harbour among the communities on high alert for flash flooding.
Some 50,000 people have been warned they could be isolated amid dozens of emergency warnings.
Flooding in Port Macquarie. Prolonged heavy rainfall is set to continue throughout Thursday, with Kempsey and Coffs Harbour among the communities on high alert for flash flooding. Source: AAP / Lindsay Moller
On Thursday evening, police said they had recovered the body of a 60-year-old woman that afternoon near Brooklana, west of Coffs Harbour.
Earlier that afternoon, police had confirmed they had recovered the body of a man aged in his 30s in Rosewood, just west of Port Macquarie.
It is believed the man became stuck while driving in floodwater in the area on Wednesday night.
It came after a 63-year-old man’s body was found on Wednesday on a verandah of a flooded home at Moto, about an hour’s drive south of Port Macquarie.
Acting NSW Police Commissioner Peter Thurtell said the SES had been in contact with the man before he died, adding an existing medical condition might have factored in.
At least one other person is missing.
NSW Premier Chris Minns told reporters on Thursday it was a “terrible” natural disaster and to brace “for more bad news in the next 24 hours”.
A fleet of helicopters, 500 boats and 2,500 personnel have allowed the NSW SES to respond to 4,000 incidents since the weather event began on Sunday.
When will the rain in NSW ease?
Hines said BoM expects the weather system will start to shift later on Thursday or Friday, with rainfall across the mid-north coast and Hunter regions expected to ease.
“[It will be] much drier tomorrow as this weather system moves southwards,” he said.
He said it would likely get “quite wet” in Sydney, but it would be “nothing like the amount of rain seen further north”.
“We will not see the same amount of flooding in Sydney as we have seen north, but certainly a wet day today and into tomorrow.
“We will see some of the rain push into western slopes and plains and parts of western NSW, and by and large those areas will welcome the rainfall, having been very dry in recent months.”
— With the Australian Associated Press.