There are no clear signals that Russian President Vladimir Putin is seriously considering ending the war in Ukraine, a leading analyst has warned, as the Kremlin prepares for ceasefire talks in Turkey later this week. John Kennedy, an expert at Rand Europe, said that Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, is likely to be one of the figures representing the Kremlin at the Istanbul talks on May 15.
However, Mr Kennedy noted that Lavrov, although a prominent figure, does not hold significant decision-making power within the Russian government. He said: “If it is Lavrov, we can say that he does not have significant influence over key foreign policy decisions. He is a representative of the Kremlin but not a decision maker – and this makes sense, given that he is a diplomat.”
Mr Kennedy went on to highlight that Lavrov is not central to Russia’s decision-making process, particularly when compared to figures like security chief Nikolai Patrushev or oil magnate Igor Sechin.
Instead, Lavrov is seen as a technocrat who excels at implementing the Kremlin’s directives rather than shaping them.
He added: “Like other technocrats – Mishustin, Nabiullina, Belousov, and Manturov – he is a bureaucrat who excels at ensuring his department meets the needs of (and flexes around) the Kremlin’s policy priorities.”
Mr Kennedy noted, however, that Putin’s position appears to remain unchanged, with no indication that the costs of the war outweigh the perceived benefits for the Russian President.
He said: “More practically, there are no clear signals that Putin believes the costs of waging war outweigh the benefits, despite lack of progress at the front and enormous loss of life.
Putin’s fate is increasingly tied to the war, and the signs are that he will continue until his hand is forced.”
Mr Kennedy’s remarks come as Moscow’s position on the war remains ambiguous.
The Kremlin has shown little indication that it intends to negotiate on its terms, despite the massive loss of life and stalled military progress.
Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has maintained that the President is open to dialogue, but has not yet shown any serious interest in a negotiated settlement.
In an update yesterday, Peskov emphasised that Putin is not rushing to end the conflict, despite mounting pressure from the West.
He stated that while Russia remains willing to engage in talks, it does not foresee a cessation of hostilities without “satisfactory” conditions.
He said: “We are ready to continue dialogue, but the conditions for it must be such that they meet Russia’s interests and security needs.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also voiced his concerns about the prospects for a ceasefire, underscoring that Ukraine will not accept any deal that undermines its sovereignty.
He has made it clear that any peace talks must result in a full withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory.
US President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has suggested that the situation could still be resolved through negotiation, arguing that the US must play a role in bringing both sides to the table.
He has expressed the belief that a deal is possible, but warned that Ukraine’s expectations for any peace deal should remain realistic.