The base nowcast is -0.4 percent down from -0.1 percent on April 17.
Gold Adjustment Background
Pat Higgins at GDPNow has made official adjustments to its model to account for gold imports.
The base model doesn’t adjust for gold imports/exports but the BEA does.
Gold bars and bullion are considered financial assets and gold imports have soared along with other imports, front-running tariffs.
For discussion, please see my March 27, 2025 GDPNow Discussion.
The gold-adjusted numbers are the ones to follow. Starting February 28, my chart only shows the adjusted numbers.
Latest Developments
- New home sales took 0.1 percentage points off the Nowcast but nothing off Real Final Sales.
- Existing-Home sales took 0.2 percentage points off the Nowcast and 0.1 percentage points off Real Final Sales.
The Number to Watch
Real Final Sales is the important number. The difference between the Nowcast and RFS is inventory adjustment that nets to zero over time.
Looking ahead I wonder about inventories because of all the tariff front-running of parts and general merchandise from highly-tariffed nations.
Observations
We are now ending the data collection for the first quarter. The Nowcast is negative and I don’t expect much movement because the key reports are now all in.
The final Nowcast for the quarter is on April 29. The BEA releases GDP numbers for the first quarter on April 30.
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