Trump says $175 Billion. The CBO says $542 billion. Think much higher.
The lead image is from the Defense Intelligence Agency report Golden Dome for America: Current and Future Missile Threats to the U.S. Homeland
Trump Says Golden Dome Will Be Operational in Three Years
In yet another fantasyland projection Trump Says Golden Dome Will Be Operational in Three Years
President Donald Trump vowed that a “Golden Dome” missile-defense shield would be “fully operational” by the end of his term, and offer the US protection from an array of threats — even though some of the technology remains unproven.
Trump’s pledge is an ambitious goal given that much of the technology around the planned system remains unproven, especially plans for space-based interceptors to knock out incoming ballistic missiles. Congress is seeking $25 billion to begin work on the system and Trump said it could cost $175 billion overall.
That conflicts with an estimate from the Congressional Budget Office, which has projected that the US might have to spend as much as $542 billion over 20 years to develop and launch those interceptors. Even that could be a low estimate compared to other projections that it could require investments of nearly $1 trillion.
Some experts have questioned whether a system of interceptors capable of destroying even small numbers of intercontinental ballistic missiles would be possible at all within the next couple of decades. Defending against a barrage from adversaries such as Russia or China is considered even more challenging.
“In our view, despite some high profile comments to the contrary, the capabilities of the current US systems are low and will likely remain low for the next 15 years,” according to a February report from the American Physical Society. The report found that many problems in developing such a system “are likely to remain unsolved during, and probably beyond, the 15-year time horizon.”
Details of the proposal aren’t clear but the Pentagon earlier developed draft plans for the air and missile defense system in response to Trump’s Jan. 27 executive order calling for its creation. The idea has garnered intense interest from defense companies given the billions of dollars that must be spent to develop it.
Some experts have said a Golden Dome system could provoke a new arms race with countries such as Russia or China, which might shift their focus to develop systems that could avoid the US interceptors.
Golden Dome by Executive Order
There is no funding for this program. It cannot be done by executive order.
But one thing we have learned over many decades is no government program ever costs as little as preliminary estimates.
Golden Dome Announcement
Lockheed Martin Is Ready
Who Thought of This?
What About Canada?
Let’s fund it all ourselves because Canada is a security threat to the US.
Rumsfeld Flashback
In 2003 Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said the war in Iraq would cost 3.9 Billion.
In 2014 I noted Defense Dept. to Request $30-40 Billion a Year to Fight ISIS; History Lessons
Anyone recall how the war in Iraq would pay for itself? That was the US Defense Department estimate in 2003.
Now some $3 trillion later (add in veterans’ benefits, depreciation of equipment, humanitarian aid, covert action, and paying for the military efforts of our coalition ‘partners’ and the Total Cost of Iraq, Afghan Wars is $4-6 Trillion.
That was the 2014 cost. The US did not withdraw its last troops from Afghanistan until August 30, 2021. And most Republicans wanted to stay.
Meanwhile Back in the Real World
The foot in the door cost of the Golden Dome is supposedly $175 Billion.
The foot in the Mideast door was $3.9 billion with a total cost of $4-6 trillion by 2014.
Please note Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” Would Increase the Deficit by $4.8 Trillion
Penn Wharton updated their budget analysis of the House bill as it now stands.
Q: Does that $4.8 Trillion include anything for the Golden Dome?
A: No
Then tack on another $1 trillion over the next 10 years if we start marching down this path.
Ultimately, expect to spend many trillions of dollars on this.