Homebuilders had another miserable month but permits jumped 15.8 percent.
The Monthly New Residential Construction report for March 2025 ended the quarter on a weak note for starts.
Building Permits
- Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,482,000. This is 1.6 percent above the revised February rate of 1,459,000, but is 0.2 percent below the March 2024 rate of 1,485,000.
- Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 978,000; this is 2.0 percent below the revised February figure of 998,000.
- Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 445,000 in March.
Housing Starts
Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,324,000. This is 11.4 percent (±13.5 percent) below the revised February estimate of 1,494,000, but is 1.9 percent (±10.6 percent) above the March 2024 rate of 1,299,000.
Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 940,000; this is 14.2 percent (±14.2 percent) below the revised February figure of 1,096,000.
The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 371,000.
Housing Completions
Privately-owned housing completions in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,549,000. This is 2.1 percent (±11.5 percent) below the revised February estimate of 1,582,000, but is 3.9 percent (±10.7 percent) above the March 2024 rate of 1,491,000.
Single-family housing completions in March were at a rate of 1,029,000; this is 0.9 percent (±10.9 percent)*above the revised February rate of 1,020,000.
The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 503,000
Note the huge margins of error in these numbers, up to 13 percentage points in starts and 10 percentage points in completions.
Housing Starts 1959-Present
The boom-bust nature of housing is on fill display in the above chart.
Housing Starts Single Family vs Multi-Family
Understanding Current Forces
- Boomers drove a huge need for housing. But the supply of housing from retiring and dying boomers will accelerate.
- Millennials and Zoomers are having fewer kids. Affordability is a huge issue.
- Immigration drove a huge need for multi-family but Trump put a screeching halt to immigration needs.
- Mortgage rates are still near 7.0 percent and tariff uncertainty adds to job loss fears.
In addition to demographics, the Fed is a big driver of prices and demand.
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