Geopolitical shifts accelerate demand for Starlink alternatives

Geopolitical shifts are accelerating the push for sovereign satellite networks, fueling momentum for connectivity operators outside the United States. Multi-orbit providers and regional players anticipate a surge in demand as nations seek alternatives to U.S.-owned SpaceX’s sprawling low Earth orbit (LEO) network — but can they scale fast enough to compete?Nowhere is this shift more evident than in Europe, which has heavily relied on SpaceX amid a shortfall of launch and satellite broadband capabilities.“The era of the peace dividend is long gone,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said March 18. She was unveiling an 800 billion euro ($872 billion) initiative to bolster defense as the U.S. reassesses its global security role.“The security architecture that we relied on can no longer be taken for granted … We must buy more European.”While details of the ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 plan are still emerging, space executives on the continent expect a boost as satellites play an increasingly critical role in national security.A shifting marketStarlink has played a pivotal role in Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s three-year invasion.Although SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has said Starlink would never turn off Ukraine’s terminals, uncertainty around long-term support has boosted shares in Eutelsat after the smaller French rival confirmed it was in talks to provide additional services to the country.
“The geopolitical situation has turned on its head in the last few weeks,” said David Wajsgras, head of U.S.-based satellite operator Intelsat. “As an executive of a big European company I was talking to this morning put it, ‘All of a sudden Europe woke up to the need to take better care of itself.’”Eutelsat’s OneWeb network remains the only meaningful LEO alternative to Starlink.Unlike Starlink, OneWeb users can also access Eutelsat’s geostationary satellites for greater redundancy, but its terminals are significantly more expensive and its advertised broadband speeds cap at 195 megabits per second, compared to Starlink’s 220 Mbps.Europe’s response is IRIS², a proposed multi-orbit sovereign broadband constellation designed to reduce reliance on foreign systems. The project envisions more than 290 satellites entering service by early 2031.Contracts for IRIS² were signed in December after an industrial consortium agreed to co-fund its more than $11 billion cost.However, skepticism remains over its timeline and ability to keep pace with Starlink, especially as China expands its own broadband constellation.“I was one of the people who was questioning whether IRIS² would actually ever happen,” Wajsgras continued. “Now I think this is going to happen and it’s going to happen a lot quicker than anybody expected.”IRIS² is structured as a public-private partnership involving major satellite operators, including Eutelsat and Luxembourg’s SES, which is currently navigating regulatory approvals to acquire Intelsat.Starlink frontrunnerStill, with more than 5 million subscribers in 125 countries and more than 7,000 satellites in LEO — and counting — Starlink remains a force to be reckoned with.SpaceX is also betting on its gigantic Starship rocket to accelerate the rollout of Starlink upgrades, reinforcing its appeal to governments, enterprises and consumers alike despite incoming competition.For years, competitors in the enterprise market have pointed out that Starlink does not guarantee bandwidth, uptime and availability under Service Level Agreements that are standard in the industry, particularly for aviation and maritime customers.However, that could also soon change.“Our offering right now is really compelling and the uptime has been amazing,” SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen said March 12 during the Satellite Conference, adding that he is pushing its sales team to incorporate service guarantees.Direct-to-device inroadsU.S. companies pioneering direct-to-device (D2D) satellite services are looking to take advantage of Europe’s renewed push for greater space sovereignty.SES announced an investment in Lynk Global March 10 to break into the fledgling D2D market, along with plans to bring the Falls Church, Virginia-based venture’s manufacturing capacity to Europe. Meanwhile, Texas-based AST SpaceMobile formed a jointly owned European satellite operator for D2D services with Vodafone, one of Europe’s largest mobile network operators.“Every continent, every political entity, is looking for sovereignty,” SES CEO Adel Al-Saleh said during the announcement, “so we will bring that capability to Europe to make sure that we can create an opportunity to participate in European projects.”Starlink is also making strides in D2D. While European companies such as Spain’s Sateliot and Luxembourg-based OQ Technology are expanding into D2D, U.S. competitors remain ahead in scale, funding and regulatory partnerships.This article first appeared in the April 2025 issue of SpaceNews Magazine.