The CPI rose 0.2 percent vs. the consensus estimate of 0.3 percent. The good news stops there.
The BLS CPI Report for April was a mixed basket of good, bad and indifferent. Here are the numbers.
CPI Month-Over-Month Details
- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April.
- The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in April, accounting for more than half of the all items monthly increase. Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER) rose 0.4 percent and rent of primary residence rose 0.3 precent.
- The energy index also increased over the month, rising 0.7 percent as increases in the natural gas index and the electricity index more than offset a decline in the gasoline index.
- The index for food fell 0.1 percent in April as the food at home index decreased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month.
- The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in April, following a 0.1-percent increase in March.
- Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, motor vehicle insurance, education, and personal care.
- Medical care services rose 0.5 percent and medical care commodities rose 0.4 percent.
- The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, communication, and apparel were among the major indexes that decreased in April.
It’s great that food at home dropped 0.4 percent. But it’s not exactly good news that food away from home rose 0.4 percent.
Shelter rose 0.33 percent and unlike food, shelter is sticky. All items except food and energy is reported at 0.2 percent but carried to 2 decimal places was 0.24 percent.
Medical care services rose 0.5 percent with commodities up 0.4 percent and that has a bigger influence on the PCE price index than the CPI. The PCE price index is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
Importantly, April does not include Trump’s tariff hikes.
CPI Year-Over-Year Percent Change
Year-Over-Year Details
- CPI: 2.3%
- CPI Excluding Food and Energy: 2.8%
- Food and Beverage: 2.7%
- Food at Home: 2.0%
- Food Away from Home: 3.9%
- OER: 4.3%
- Rent of primary residence: 4.0%
- Medical Care Services: 3.1%
- Medical Care Commodities: 1.0%
Year-over-year the CPI is up 2.3 percent vs the expected 2.4 percent.
It’s easy to find something to cheer about, but there are some troubling details as well.
Looking Ahead
Looking ahead, the year-over-year numbers are probably as good as they will get for another four months.
I expect year-over-year increases for 3-4 months, starting in either May or June. And that is without tariff price increases. I will explain in a subsequent post.
Finally, the bond market reaction to this report was negative and that’s arguably the best measure of the report.
Also weighing on the bond market is a massive increase in the deficit and debt if Trump gets the One Big Beautiful Bill that he wants.
Spending is up a whopping 58 percent in six years and Congress doesn’t want to challenge Trump on it.
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