A centre-left party surges from behind in the polls to win an election fought over cost of living concerns and rising global uncertainty, driven in part by Donald Trump’s presidency. Sounds familiar?
With just days until the , political insiders in Australia are analysing the results of an election on the other side of the world, searching for lessons that may apply at home.
Canada’s ruling Liberal Party — which shares a name with Australia’s conservative party but sits on the other side of the political spectrum — has won enough seats to retain power.
It’s a remarkable outcome for the Liberals, who were 20 percentage points behind in the polls earlier this year.
The progressive party looked headed for a crushing defeat until Trump started attacking Canada’s economy and threatening its sovereignty, suggesting it should become the 51st state.
Trump’s actions enraged Canadians and stoked a surge in nationalism that helped the
The opposition wanted to make the election a referendum on former prime minister Justin Trudeau, who was waning in popularity as food, power, and housing prices surged.
But Trudeau soon quit and was replaced as leader ahead of the election, with disaffected voters flocking back to his party as Trump threatened annexation and a trade war.
There are obvious differences between the Canadian experience and Australia’s election, but also some parallels, including the upending influence of Trump.
Can Donald Trump impact Australian election outcome?
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reflected on this trend during an interview with one of the world’s most popular podcasts, The Rest is Politics.
He described Trump’s impact on the Australian campaign as far less than people believed, unlike in Canada, where it was “brutal”.
“It is more distant, but certainly the uncertainty that is in the global economy and the world has an impact as well,” Albanese said.
During the interview, Albanese compared his opponent, Opposition leader Peter Dutton, to Trump in tone.
Dutton has been “channelling some other world leaders we’re seeing” and “bringing a machismo” to politics, Albanese said.
Dutton’s campaign has suffered from its association with Trump, with Labor accusing the Coalition of adopting a Trumpian agenda through measures including public service job cuts.
After lagging in opinion polls, Labor is considered in the box seat to form minority government, if not obtain power in its own right.
Political strategist Jack Milroy, who has worked on progressive campaigns in Canada and Australia, said the US relationship would be less of a factor on Saturday, but voters were still conscious of the global instability.
“The Canadian example has kind of shown that a strong approach to the US seems to pay dividends politically,” he told the Australian Associated Press.
“The Labor Party is in a good position for our election, but it will be interesting to see how they relate to the US going forward.”
Milroy said he will be watching closely to determine whether support for Australia’s two major parties grows in response to global headwinds, as it did in Canada.
Published polling suggests Australian voters have drifted from Labor and the Coalition in favour of independents and minor parties.
“What will be very interesting is if we see a reversal of that trend to follow the Canadian example,” he said.
Trump’s tariffs on Australian goods, such as steel and aluminium, have been an election issue in Australia as cost of living woes and the economic outlook remain front of mind for many voters.
Trump told Australian reporters in the US on Tuesday he planned to talk to Albanese about trade in the near future, although he gave no firm indication of the timing.
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