For now, China is still doing fine on exports and US shelves are not empty, yet.
Chinese Exports Soar to Rest of Asia, Europe
Bloomberg reports Chinese Exports to US Slump 21% But Soar to Rest of Asia, Europe
China’s export growth rose even as shipments to the US slumped sharply in the first month after President Donald Trump hit its goods with tariffs above 100%, a boost for a domestic economy that’s been increasingly reliant on foreign demand.
Total exports expanded 8.1% last month, above the 2% increase forecast by economists. Imports fell 0.2%, leaving a trade surplus of $96 billion, according to data from the customs administration Friday.
Shipments to the US fell 21% after the imposition of tariffs in early April, while those to the 10 Southeast Asian nations in the Asean group rose 21% and exports to the European Union were up 8%.
The first official hard data after the trade war escalated captures only the initial damage from the prohibitive tariffs, with their effects likely to become more pronounced starting this month. The expectation of many analysts is that unless the levies are reduced, trade between the world’s two largest economies would eventually fall to negligible levels after reaching almost $690 billion last year, decimating industries and raising prices for companies and consumers.
The slump in trade between the rival superpowers will be harmful to both economies, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling the current tariffs “unsustainable.”
Bessent and his team will start talks on Saturday with a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss the way forward.
The two sides have staked out strong positions ahead of the talks, which might indicate it will be hard to make quick headway on any deal. On Thursday, just hours after Trump said he was unwilling to lower levies on China in order to unlock more substantive negotiations, Beijing repeated its demand that the US cancel all its tariffs.
Japan’s Early Exports in April Slow
Also note Japan’s Early Exports in April Slow as US Tariffs Hit Firms
Japan’s exports slowed in the first 20 days of April as the US tariff campaign intensified with new car and across-the-board levies.
Exports measured by value rose 2.3% from the same period a year earlier, the Finance Ministry reported Friday. That compared with a 4.2% gain in the first 20 days of March, and a 4.0% rise for that whole month. Growth in exports has averaged 6.1% over the year through March.
Items that contributed most to the slowdown in export growth were autos, steel, and mineral fuels, according to a Finance Ministry official. The ministry did not provide a further regional or amount-based breakdown of the trade figures.
In early April, the Trump administration hit Japan with a 25% tariff on cars and a minimum 10% levy on goods across the board, after slapping the country with additional levies on steel and aluminum in March. The car tariff was expanded to auto parts later, although partial relief measures were taken.
Japan is hoping to get a trade agreement with the US in June, but there is no sign yet that it’s poised to get a full removal of all tariffs before the 10% across-the-board levy returns to its original 24% in early July, once the period of temporary reprieve comes to an end.
The levy on cars and auto parts, Japan’s most lucrative exports to the US, is of particular concern for the nation, as some economists expect the economy to have contracted in the first quarter of this year even before the tariffs began hitting the nation.
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A partial rollback of tariffs on China from 145 percent to 125 percent or even 75 percent will not do that much good.
Even at 75 percent, trade with China will collapse except for items impossible to get anywhere else.