Why should any of them?
Contending with Mistrust on the Budget
The Wall Street Journal reports Mike Johnson Contends With Republican Mistrust in Dash to Pass Tax Bill
The relationship between Johnson and rank-and-file lawmakers will be crucial as Republicans look to pass extensions to expiring tax cuts as well as new breaks such as “no taxes on tips” while also pushing through cuts to Medicaid and food aid. Johnson has a razor-thin 220-213 majority in the chamber, and he will have to pass the party-line measure with no help from Democrats. He also will need to persuade House colleagues to get on board even as Senate Republicans could make major changes to the bill.
The tensions, which started in the restive conservative wing of the party last year, have now spread more broadly, according to more than 20 House Republicans who recounted episodes or experiences that have led them to be skeptical of what Johnson says. The complaints center on issues related to the current budget negotiations and past votes related to the bill, as well as other incidents involving the speaker and lawmakers.
A Johnson spokesman said Tuesday that the speaker “has been clear and transparent with members throughout the reconciliation process—that the savings in the House bill will meet or exceed the targets laid out by the House Republicans’ budget resolution passed back in February.” He said Johnson “is working around the clock to put a bill on the floor that does exactly that before Memorial Day.”
The House plan aims for at least $1.5 trillion in deficit reductions over a decade and allows $4 trillion in tax cuts.
The degree of frustration differs from member to member. The most critical said there is a clear-cut pattern of Johnson saying one thing and doing another. Others wondered whether he was making promises he knew he couldn’t keep or if they were a product of dealing with competing factions. And some questioned whether his efforts to please colleagues hurt his ability to deliver tough news. Members who put it most mildly described miscommunications or disconnects in what the speaker pledged.
“Lots of assurances were made when the [budget] framework passed, and now the chickens are coming home to roost, and the people who were given those assurances don’t feel like the assurances were kept,” said Rep. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.), one of Johnson’s loudest critics, who tried unsuccessfully to oust him as speaker last year.
“Overall, I am very disappointed in his leadership and his honesty,” said Rep. Max Miller (R., Ohio), another member who has repeatedly criticized Johnson.
The perceived assurances to moderates rankled conservatives, who have been trying to lock in deeper cuts. Rep. Mike Lawler, a New York moderate, told freshman Texas Rep. Brandon Gill that GOP leadership had told him that the $1.5 trillion in promised cuts would be less severe, according to two House Republicans familiar with the matter. Gill, who is part of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus pushing for that level of spending cuts at a minimum, raised the alarm with his fellow group members as well as with leadership. Johnson, confronted on the matter, said Lawler was taking his comments out of context, the two lawmakers familiar with the matter said.
Johnson’s Hypocrisy
This Johnson labels a monstrous increase in the deficit as budget “cuts”.
Recall that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted for passing a “clean continuation resolution”.
Johnson, McCarthy’s replacement, immediately passed three more clean resolutions and now is working on raising the debt ceiling and passing “One Big Beautiful Bill”.
These actions are worse than anything McCarthy did to get outed.
But that’s OK now because Trump is OK with it.
The Ugly Truth About the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’
Senator Ron Johnson (R. WI) explains The Ugly Truth About the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” that Congress is working on is certainly big, but beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Too often the reality of these budget debates get obscured in details, politically charged issues and demagoguery. Let me attempt to clarify the current discussion by focusing on the most important facts and numbers.
In fiscal 2019, federal outlays totaled $4.45 trillion, or 20.6% of gross domestic product. This year, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s January 2025 projection, total outlays will be $7.03 trillion, or 23.3% of GDP. That’s a 58% increase over six years. The CBO projects federal outlays will total $89.3 trillion across fiscal 2026-35. Much of the blame goes to pandemic spending, but lockdowns are long over. There’s nothing now to justify this abnormal level of government spending. Pathetically, Congress is having a hard time agreeing on a reduction of even $1.5 trillion from that 10-year amount. That’s a 1.68% cut—a little more than a rounding error. My guess is that much of that minuscule decrease will be backloaded to the end of the 10 years for which Congress is now budgeting, increasing the probability those savings will never be realized.
Under every scenario now being considered, federal debt continues to skyrocket from its current level of almost $37 trillion. The CBO’s current projection adds around $22 trillion over the next 10 years, resulting in total debt of approximately $59 trillion—134% of GDP—in 2035. That projection assumes an automatic tax increase will occur in 2026 when provisions of the 2017 tax cuts expire, increasing revenue from 17.1% of GDP in fiscal 2025 to an average of 18.1% over the next 10 years. With the CBO projecting 10-year GDP at $373 trillion, that 1% increase represents $3.7 trillion of additional revenue and lower debt.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Will Continue Spending at Biden’s Level
On May 12, I commented The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Will Continue Spending at Biden’s Level
Please note The GOP Surrenders on Medicaid
The House bill shrinks from a fight over able-bodied men on the dole.
The work requirement doesn’t kick in until 2029—a political lifetime from now. The bill also sets up a waiver process, which states have long abused to evade work rules in food stamps.
But far more notable is that the bill fails to end Medicaid’s outrageous bias toward prime-age men who can work. The feds pay 90% of the cost of able-bodied adults eligible for Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act—but only roughly 50% to 77% (depending on the state) for pregnant women, the blind and so on.
Republicans won’t even insist that able-bodied persons must work.
And people are bragging Trump will bring down inflation.
If this budget passes, there is no way inflation comes down other than a huge recession that destroys demand.
Long-duration treasury yields are up again today. The 30-yeay yield is 4.97 percent and the 10-year note yields 4.53 percent.
Budget and Deficit Common Sense from Rand Paul Gets Him Labeled a RINO
On May 11, I commented Budget and Deficit Common Sense from Rand Paul Gets Him Labeled a RINO
If you believe fiscal conservativeness is a Republican value, then Trump is the RINO, not Rand Paul.
Ominous Looking 10-Year and 30-Year US Treasury Yield Charts
On May 3, I commented Ominous Looking 10-Year and 30-Year US Treasury Yield Charts
The technical patterns on long-dated treasuries suggest rising yields. What about fundamentals?
Meanwhile, Trump demands a rate cut by the Fed. He fails to understand the Fed does not control the long end of the curve.