Let’s discuss preconditions for talks that are already underway. What?
Talk About Talks
- Trump says the US and China are talking
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and China are not talking and there are no plans to talk
- Fox Business news discusses a timeline update for possible talks
- Today, Reuters says China is evaluating the US Offer to talk
- Bloomberg discusses a possible thaw
- PBS discusses obstacles to talks
- The New York Times says the US and China dig in with no plans for talks
One thing is perfectly clear. It’s all bullsheet, especially Trump’s claim talks are already underway.
China Hints at Possible Thaw
Bloomberg reports China Hints at Possible Thaw With US in Weighing Trade Talks
China’s Commerce Ministry said in a Friday statement that it had noted senior US officials repeatedly expressing their willingness to talk to Beijing about tariffs, and urged officials in Washington to show “sincerity” toward China.
“The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” the ministry added. “China is currently evaluating this.”
China has also quietly started to exempt roughly $40 billion worth of US goods from tariffs, in an apparent effort to soften the blow of the trade war on its own economy. A list of 131 excepted products is circulating among traders and businesses, which highlights areas where Beijing relies on American products, including pharmaceuticals and industrial chemicals.
Still, there is a long way to go for the US and China to get talks off the ground. Trump has repeatedly said President Xi Jinping needs to contact him in order to begin tariff talks. Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it’s up to Beijing to take the first step to de-escalate the dispute.
Very Close to Talks
No Plans for Formal Talks
The New York Times reports U.S. and China Dig In on Trade War, With No Plans for Formal Talks
At a White House economic briefing this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent demurred multiple times when pressed about President Trump’s recent claim that President Xi Jinping of China had called him. Although top economic officials might usually be aware of such high-level talks, Mr. Bessent insisted that he was not logging the president’s calls.
“I have a lot of jobs around the White House; running the switchboard isn’t one of them,” Mr. Bessent joked.
“China and the U.S. have not held consultations or negotiations on the issue of tariffs,” Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said at a news conference last Friday. “The United States should not confuse the public.”
However, China’s Commerce Ministry said this Friday that it was now considering holding talks with the Trump administration after repeated attempts by senior U.S. officials to start negotiations.
The economic toll of the tit for tat is starting to become clear. The International Monetary Fund last month lowered its growth outlook for both countries and the world, warning that the tariffs had made a downturn more likely. Government data released this week showed Chinese factory activity slowing in April and first-quarter growth in the United States weakening.
During a cabinet meeting on Wednesday at the White House, Mr. Trump acknowledged that children in the United States may wind up with fewer dolls that cost more. But he insisted that he would continue to push for a “fair deal” with China, which he described as the “leading candidate for the chief ripper-offer.”
The Treasury secretary is expected to take the lead on the China negotiations while Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, oversees most of the other talks. However, Mr. Trump has not formally appointed or authorized a U.S. official to negotiate on his behalf with China, leaving Chinese officials to believe that the Trump administration is not ready or serious about trade talks.
In an interview with Fox News this week, Jamieson Greer, the United States trade representative, said that he met virtually for over an hour with his Chinese counterpart before April 2 but that there had been no talks since Mr. Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Mr. Trump has suggested that Mr. Xi should call him to begin the talks personally, noting their strong personal relationship. But that is not how China typically handles important economic matters. The United States and China traditionally work out their economic differences through a structured dialogue with formal meetings and working groups led by a top economic official from each country.
“This very personalistic approach by President Trump, who wants to negotiate directly with President Xi, doesn’t match with the Chinese system at all,” said Craig Allen, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.
Michael Pillsbury, a top China adviser to Mr. Trump during his first term, said Beijing was most likely waiting to see what the deals that the Trump administration reaches with other nations such as India and Japan look like before engaging directly.
“They don’t want to start the formal talks because they want to know the bottom line from others first,” said Mr. Pillsbury, who speaks to U.S. and Chinese officials.
He noted that the trade fight has become a major point of national pride for China and that it believes that Mr. Trump’s demands — which Beijing does not fully grasp — will soften as American markets gyrate and midterm elections in the United States draw closer.
“Delay is very much in their interest, and a speedy deal is very much in Trump’s interest,” Mr. Pillsbury said.
Beijing Weighs Fentanyl Offer to U.S. to Start Trade Talks
The Wall Street Journal reports Beijing Weighs Fentanyl Offer to U.S. to Start Trade Talks
Beijing is considering ways to address the Trump administration’s concerns over China’s role in the fentanyl trade, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially offering an off-ramp from hostilities to allow for trade talks to start.
The discussions remain fluid, the people cautioned, while adding that Beijing would like to see some softening from President Trump on his trade offensive against China.
In a clear shift in tone Friday, China’s Commerce Ministry said it was weighing starting talks with the U.S. to halt a trade war while expressing Beijing’s wish for the Trump administration to “show sincerity” to talk. Previously, the ministry had demanded that Washington slash its steep tariffs on China first as a condition for negotiations.
The Trump administration has been considering slashing the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports in a bid to de-escalate tensions with Beijing that have roiled U.S. markets and resulted in U.S. retailers complaining about soon-to-be empty store shelves, The Wall Street Journal has reported. But administration officials also have said the U.S. wouldn’t act unilaterally and would need to see some action from Beijing.
In recent weeks, both sides have exempted certain products from the high duties. But the carve-outs by both Washington and Beijing so far have appeared to be driven by the desire to limit economic damage rather than making concessions.
Beijing’s ongoing discussions on a potential fentanyl offer to the U.S. is the latest twist in a bilateral dance that has led to a communication impasse between both capitals.
Just a few weeks ago, Chinese officials complained privately about not being able to get through to Trump’s core team. But the tables appear to have turned. In the past week or so, Trump and his cabinet members have repeatedly talked about having conversations with the Chinese side, only to be met with stern denials from Beijing until late this week.
China’s Commerce Ministry said Friday Beijing “is currently evaluating” repeated comments and messages from U.S. officials that “expressed their willingness to negotiate with China on tariffs.”
Talks Closer? So What?
Assume you believe talks are closer, or they aren’t. Whatever opinion you want, you can find.
As long as Trump holds the views that trade deficits need to be eliminated on a bilateral basis, talks are not going anywhere.
Trump is looking to placate the market with statements every week:
Ohhh, talks are going well. There’s progress; China is giving in. Whatever.
And China is hoping an offer on fentanyl will allow Trump to do something substantial. Trump won’t, at least enough to matter.
Dropping tariffs from 145%, to 125%, to 100%, to 80% is all meaningless nonsense. Expect meaningless nonsense accompanied by Trump bragging how nice he is.
Mysterious US Trade Reps Meet With Mysterious China Trade Reps. It’s a Mystery
On April 24, I commented Mysterious US Trade Reps Meet With Mysterious China Trade Reps. It’s a Mystery
The unknown meet the unknown discussing the unknown. Let’s discuss Schrödinger’s Cat vs Schrödinger’s Trump.
Talks? What Talks?
- Bessent: The United States and China are not engaged in trade talks because the tariffs both countries have imposed on each other have “to be de-escalated before trade talks.”
- Bessent: The US “does not have a timeline for talks to begin.“
- Bloomberg: “Trump has tried to get Xi on the phone a number of times since he returned to office, but the Chinese leader has, so far, resisted.”
- China: “Any reports on development in talks are groundless.” The US needs to “show sincerity” if it wants to make a deal.
- Trump: “They had a meeting this morning. It doesn’t matter who ‘they’ is. We may reveal ‘later’.”
Finally, both trump and Bessent are telling the truth because the meeting both happened and didn’t happen.
To understand how this works we need to explore quantum physics.
In “Trumperland”, meetings can have happened and not happened simultaneously. It does not matter who “they” is or even if there is a “they”.
Theoretical meetings between unknown “theys” is sufficient to say that a meeting that took place, and also that it didn’t, no matter what was or was not discussed.
Now we are discussing conditions for talks that were already underway.
This makes perfect sense, somewhere.