Let’s start with results. What has Trump achieved?
How Many Has Trump Deported?
Please consider Deportation in the second presidency of Donald Trump
The Trump administration has claimed that around 140,000 people had been deported as of April 2025, though some estimates put the number at roughly half that amount.
During his rallies, Trump blurred the distinction between legal and illegal immigrants, and promised to deport both. Trump did not rule out separating families with mixed citizenship status. On the campaign trail in December 2023, President Donald Trump said immigrants coming to the U.S. are “poisoning the blood of our country,” a remark that quickly drew a rebuke from his chief Democratic rival, as President Joe Biden’s campaign likened the words to those of Adolf Hitler.
Trump told a rally audience in September 2024 that the deportation effort “will be a bloody story.” He has also spoken of rounding up homeless people in blue cities and detaining them in camps. The Trump team will also attempt to overturn the Flores settlement that prevents the indefinite holding of children.
Trump’s campaign has stated his intention to expel DACA recipients after his previous attempt failed in 2020 by a 5–4 vote in the Supreme Court in Department of Homeland Security v. Regents of the University of California.
Trump set a goal of 1,200 to 1,500 ICE arrests per day, but his administration has largely failed to meet these targets. Trump’s administration saw about 800 ICE arrests per day after he took office in January, declining to fewer than 600 arrests per day in February, at which point ICE stopped publishing daily statistics.
Amid relatively low numbers of ICE arrests and deportations, Trump’s administration sought to inflate the presence of deportations in media, such as by posting images of shackled deportees on social media, manipulating google searches by updating timestamps of old ICE press releases, and allowing celebrities like Dr. Phil to accompany ICE raids.
In February 2025, Reuters reported that ICE planned to locate over 600,000 people who entered the US as children without their parents, some of whom were no longer children and some of whom had rejoined and were living with parents, and either deport them, if deportation had already been ordered, or serve notice to appear in immigration court. On March 6, 2025, ICE began to detain immigrant parents and children together in a Texas detention facility. The first group contained 3 minor children.
Those clips are roughly in line with Trump’s claims to “deport them all”
That’s ~100,000 down and ~12 million to go, the latter in a range of estimates of 11-18 million.
The Softer Side of Trump
On November, 11. 2014, the Wall Street Journal discussed Trump’s Mass Deportation Promise
Mr. Trump announced late Sunday that Tom Homan, his former acting head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, has agreed to be his new border czar. Mr. Homan will be “in charge of our Nation’s Borders,” plus “all Deportation of Illegal Aliens back to their Country of Origin,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social. Media leaks Monday said Stephen Miller, who advised Mr. Trump on immigration policy in the first term, is likely to be White House deputy chief of staff for policy.
How it goes depends on what Mr. Trump means. Speaking Monday on Fox News, Mr. Homan said the priority will be “public-safety threats and national-security threats,” as well as migrants who “had due process” and “their federal judge said ‘you must go home,’ and they didn’t.”
Good to hear, and add what Mr. Homan told “60 Minutes” last month. “It’s not going to be a mass sweep of neighborhoods,” he said. “It’s not going to be building concentration camps. I’ve read it all. It’s ridiculous.”
Instead he said Mr. Trump’s plan would involve “targeted arrests,” and eventually “worksite enforcement operations.” If officers making an arrest also find an undocumented grandma in the house, will they detain her? “It depends,” Mr. Homan said. “Let the judge decide.”
Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers, including Mr. Miller, have talked about mass deportation in sweeping terms. But enforcement priorities are up to the President, and Mr. Trump has suggested he isn’t interested in illegal grandmothers.
When he visited the Journal recently, we asked about aliens who have been here for years, who might have U.S. citizen spouses and children. His response was that he wanted to help them.
“We have a lot of good people in this country, and we have to do something about it,” Mr. Trump said. “This has been going on for a long time. It’s a complicated subject.” He declined to specify whom he’d deport: “I don’t want to go too much into clarification, because the nicer I become, the more people that come over illegally.” Yet after stringent talk about deterrence, he ended with nuance: “There are some human questions that get in the way of being perfect, and we have to have the heart, too.”
Mr. Trump can do much on immigration by executive action, but a durable solution needs legislation. Maybe Democrats, after the electoral haymaker they got last week, will be willing to compromise more than they have in the past. Mr. Trump missed a chance for a bipartisan deal in 2018 to permanently change the border incentives on asylum and more. He’ll have a narrow window again next year, if he’s willing and has the heart.
A Sensible Plan
A sensible plan is to deport the criminals, shut the border, improve the legal process, give priority to parents and spouses of US citizens, give priority to those here the longest, and give priority to those working.
A Watered Down Deportation Effort?
On December 15, the Wall Street Journal reported Trump Allies Fear Watered Down Deportation Efforts
In the weeks since the election, and even in some rally speeches toward the end of the campaign, Trump and his incoming advisers have alluded to a mass removal effort of immigrants with a criminal record, a far narrower set of people than the 15 million to 20 million Trump pledged to deport earlier in the year. Tom Homan, the president-elect’s incoming border czar, has said Trump’s team isn’t planning to perform mass raids in immigrant enclaves—the worst fear of immigrants-rights activists.
“This isn’t going to be neighborhood sweeps and military vehicles going through the city,” Homan said in an interview with Dr. Phil McGraw on Thursday after meeting with New York Mayor Eric Adams. “I told him, you know, President Trump and myself have committed that this is going to be a targeted enforcement operation.”
Homan pushed back on the notion that the deportation has been vastly narrowed. “I have not taken anyone off the table,” he said. “We just need to be smart.”
Trump’s hard-line immigration backers say they have noticed a retrenchment. They say they are holding their fire to attempt to influence the incoming president before they criticize him openly.
The president-elect’s allies also are concerned by the Trump team’s willingness to exclude some categories of migrants. Trump said in a recent interview with NBC, for example, that he wanted to work with Democrats to come up with legislation to protect Dreamers, immigrants in the U.S. illegally who were brought as children, from deportation. Backers of hard-line immigration policies view an exemption for Dreamers, who often have bipartisan support, as a slippery slope.
“We’re starting with the criminals and we’ve got to do it,” Trump said in the same interview. “And then we’re starting with others and we’re going to see how it goes.” Pressed on deporting migrants who crossed the border illegally but don’t have criminal backgrounds, Trump continued to talk about “murderers” and “dangerous people,” while adding: “I think you have to do it, and it’s a hard—it’s a very tough thing to do.”
One frustrated Trump ally said: “When you keep excluding people from mass detention and deportation and saying ‘we’ll get the worst of the worst first’—well, guess what, that also happens to be Biden’s immigration policy.”
Trump’s deportation plans are facing many logistical hurdles that his team has generally started to publicly acknowledge following the election. For example, most of the migrants who entered the country under the Biden administration are currently awaiting court hearings and can’t be deported in the meantime. Among those who can be legally deported, many live in blue cities and states, where Trump is far less likely to have local cooperation to help track them down and turn them over.
The Middle Ground
We need sensible immigration policy. Mass deportation of 10 to 15 million immigrants (or even 6 million) is not sensible.
It’s a dirty, not-so-secret, fact that red state and blue state alike depend on migrant labor for construction projects, hotels, cooking and cleaning jobs etc.
I have repeatedly suggest we deport criminals, have a reasonable amnesty program for hard working immigrants who have been here for years, and mostly close the border using the military if necessary.
Trump Says Dreamers Should Stay!
On December 9, 2024, I noted On Meet the Press, Trump Said He “Wants the Illegal Dreamers to Stay”
Trump’s interview on Meet the Press sounds exactly like the deportation strategy I proposed.
Partial Interview Transcript (Emphasis Mine)
Kristen Welker:
What about dreamers, sir? Dreamers, who were brought to this country illegally as children. You said once back in 2017 they, quote, “Shouldn’t be very worried about being deported.” Should they be worried now?President-Elect Trump:
The dreamers are going to come later, and we have to do something about the dreamers because these are people that have been brought here at a very young age. And many of these are middle-aged people now. They don’t even speak the language of their country. And yes, we’re going to do something about the dreamers. And —Kristen Welker:
What does that mean? What are you going to do?President-Elect Trump:
I will work with the Democrats on a plan. And if we can come up with a plan, but the Democrats have made it very, very difficult to do anything. Republicans are very open to the dreamers. The dreamers, we’re talking many years ago they were brought into this country. Many years ago. Some of them are no longer young people. And in many cases, they’ve become successful. They have great jobs. In some cases they have small businesses. Some cases they might have large businesses. And we’re going to have to do something with them.Kristen Welker:
You want them to be able to stay, that’s what you’re saying?President-Elect Trump:
I do. I want to be able to work something out, and it should’ve been able to be worked out over the last three or four years and it never got worked out. You know, Biden could’ve done it because he controlled, you know, Congress to a certain extent, right? He could’ve done something, but they didn’t do it. I never understood why because they always seemed to want to do it, but then when it comes down to it, they don’t. I think we can work with the Democrats and work something out.
What Was the Consensus?
A reader commented today “I could not disagree with Mish more about illegal immigration. It’s one of the few issues that Trump has broad popular support.”
But what was the question? Ponder these questions.
- Illegals are stealing our jobs and costing us money. Should we deport them all?
- We will have massive inflation and job shortages if we deport them all. Should we do it?
It’s easy to get the answer you want by phrasing the question one way or another.
Moreover, Trump has so poisoned the atmosphere that even a neutral-appearing question is suspect. For example, consider the question “Should we deport everyone here illegally?”
Compare that to “Should we deport everyone here illegally, even if they have been here five years, have a job, have citizen children, and have no criminal background?”
Those two statements are essentially the same because of the word “everyone”. But the answers would not be close to the same because the second question accurately spells out that “everyone” literally means “everyone”.
What Are the Costs to Deport them All?
- The first cost in rounding up 11 million people.
- The second cost is holding facilities awaiting a hearing and we have already heard the Supreme Court ruling on that.
- The third cost is a massive labor shortage especially in skilled construction, but also agriculture, hotel cleaning, and other service sector jobs.
Unless you explain the costs of an idea, answers to questions are invalid.
Try this question on for size: “Should we deport everyone here illegally, even if they have been here five years, have a job, have citizen children, and have no criminal background, at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars, resulting in labor shortages and huge inflation?
Only confirmed bigots would answer yes. But that is exactly what deport them all means.
What Happened?
I discussed what happened in Supreme Court Rules 7-2 Against Trump on Alien Enemies Case
The Supreme Court gave Trump a much-deserved smack in the face today.
Trump did not opt for a deal. He deported people by mistake. He claims he cannot remedy his mistake.
Addendum
A reader commented “You must be happy. The fifteen+ million illegals will get to stay since it will doubtless prove procedurally impossible to deport them.”
No! I am happy about the ruling but unhappy with where we are.
There are 1 million or so criminals with warrants that should be deported. There are also 12 million or so people hard-working who should not be living in fear of being deported.
So, the whole damn thing stinks.
And yes, Biden created this mess. But Trump has to deal with the hand he is dealt, not try to turn the clock back 4 years.
Trump Takes the Wrong Path
In various interviews, Trump presented two conflicting paths forward.
He had a short window of opportunity to make a deal with Democrats. But “King Deal” did not opt for a deal.
Instead, Trump opted to throw red meat to the hyena bigots and economic illiterates screaming for deport them all even though that would have led to a massive job shortage and scorching inflation.
Making matters much worse for himself, Trump deported people by mistake. He claims he cannot remedy his mistake.
This justifiably resulted in a 7-2 Supreme Court ruling against Trump.
Ponder my final question again: “Should we deport everyone here illegally, even if they have been here five years, have a job, have citizen children, and have no criminal background, at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars, resulting in labor shortages and huge inflation?”
Only confirmed bigots would answer yes.
Had Trump opted for a deal, we would be on our way for deporting criminals and we would have a buy-in from Democrats. And we would have labor market certainty and job stability, too! Best of all, we would have a guiding deal going forward.
Q: King Deal is not really interested in deals is he?
A: No. Trump wants to rule by seat of the pants Executive Order decree, using asinine interpretations of “Birthright Citizenship” and “Alien Enemy Invasions” to do so.
The hyenas now howl about the “Activist Court” when 100% of the problem is a “Activist Trump.
The 7-2 decision speaks for itself. Trump is the activist, not the court.
Rule of Law Addendum
A reader foolish enough to still want to deport them all despite the issues in this post asked “Does America stand for rule of law?”
That’s the great irony. Isn’t it?
Trump is breaking the law, confirmed 7-2 in the supreme court. And bigots don’t give a damn about that aspect of the rule of law.
Biden opened the floodgates.
He shouldn’t have.
And now they are entitled to a hearing, like it or not.
So do we break the law and deny the hearings because Trump and readers are bigots?
These alleged “rule of law” hypocrites don’t want any rules or laws that are contrary to there bigoted positions or contrary to what the Trump cult wants.
It’s not just the Trump cult of course. The Progressive cult led by AOC, Elizabeth Warren, and senile Biden also want to pack the courts for their purposes.
It’s cancel culture vs cancel culture with each hypocrites on each side screaming at the top of their lungs about the cancel culture.
Very few of us really give a damn about the rule of law. I am proud to be in that small minority.