In what is expected to be a tight election, the diverse electorate is seen as up for grabs and is one of the most unpredictable contests this election.
A tight three-way race with national implications
This means the race is far from settled.
The electorate of Bullwinkel takes in some rural areas and outer metropolitan suburbs of Perth. Source: SBS News
Labor’s candidate is Trish Cook, a local nurse and Mundaring councillor, who has lived in the Perth Hills for nearly 20 years.
Marginal seats such as Tangney — a traditional Liberal stronghold — are held by Labor with a narrow 2.8 per cent margin.
Australian PM Anthony Albanese congratulates Labor member for Tangney Sam Lim after signing the Labor Caucus book in 2022. Lim holds Tangney which has a 2.8 per cent margin. Source: AAP / Lukas Coch
The competition between Cook’s Liberal and National rivals could help her chances.
The Liberals and Nationals in WA often clash over policies in state parliament, and if they fail to work together at the federal level, it could divide the conservative vote.
The Liberals and Nationals face policy tensions at a state level, raising questions about their unity at the federal level. Source: SBS News / Christopher Tan
Liberal candidate Matt Moran, a former journalist and a veteran of the war in Afghanistan, grew up in the area and his parents own a small farm. He believes his experience in the military and media has given him a strong foundation in public service and leadership.
The economic divide
Sheep farmer Peter Boyle, whose family has farmed in the region since 1855, faces an uncertain future.
York sheep farmer Peter Boyle fears the live export ban will devastate rural businesses, with sheep trading already dropping from 30 per cent to 1 per cent of his operation. Source: SBS News / Christopher Tan
“We don’t know where we are going to go next year because there’s a huge reduction in sheep numbers all around us,” Boyle said.
The live sheep export ban will take effect by 1 May 2028.
But there were warnings farmers would leave the industry and rural communities would shrink.
Confidence in Western Australia’s sheep industry is plummeting, with the imminent live export ban making sheep farming financially unviable for many producers. Source: SBS News / Christopher Tan
Local abattoirs are already at capacity, and some have closed in the past 12 months due to declining confidence in the sector.
The hearing included a fiery moment when Kojonup farmer Steve McGuire responded to questions from committee chair Meryl Swanson about how farming organisations were helping members to transition.
Since then, the Coalition, led by Nationals leader David Littleproud, has vowed to reverse the ban if elected.
A young boy holds a sign at a farmers’ protest last year, opposing the Federal Government’s ban on live sheep exports, a decision that has sparked widespread backlash across rural communities. Source: SBS News / Christopher Tan
“My first international trip will be to Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Morocco — to show them respect,” Littleproud said.
“Live sheep exports will be important for some people, but I don’t think it’s a major vote shifter.”
Suburban struggles: The cost-of-living crisis
Local barber Hussein Naser, a father of four who runs his own business, says rising costs are making it harder to stay afloat.
Hussein Naser, who runs a barber in the outer suburban Perth seat of Bullwinkel, says the cost of living crisis is his biggest concern this election. Source: SBS News / Christopher Tan
I’ve had to cut staff because customers stopped spending enough money.
“Politicians may promise 10 things, but how many of those 10 things will actually get done,” he said.
Hussein Naser says politicians will need to work harder to earn his vote this election, as rising costs and financial pressures leave him sceptical of political promises. Source: SBS News / Christopher Tan
Labor’s Trish Cook has put economic relief at the centre of her campaign, but during a visit to Bullwinkel, she was shielded from media questions about the live export ban — only responding after Veterans’ Affairs Minister and Member for Burt Matt Keogh intervened.
When asked about whether her focus on cost-of-living issues risked alienating farmers, she defended her approach.
“I’ve been a nurse for a long time, and I’ve lived in this area for over 20 years, I know this area very well.”
Labor candidate for Bullwinkel, Trish Cook (centre, red jacket), looks on as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks to health staff in Perth. Source: AAP / Aaron Bunch
This wasn’t the first time she was protected from scrutiny — a press conference ended abruptly on 9 January when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited WA and reporters pressed for answers from Cook.
National lessons from WA’s state election
And with no sitting member, the seat is up for grabs — making it one of the most unpredictable contests this election.